Originally Posted by
737er
Im just trying to keep it real here regarding the specific issue of did they think they had an 11 knot tailwind component and just landed anyway. To that I’d say it’s monumentally and fantastically implausible.
It looks like they acknowledged the 11 knot tailwind and indeed landed anyway.
The Aircraft Performance Study in the Accident Docket has this analysis:
Reported vs. actual wind conditions
The maximum tailwind allowed by the SWA AOM is 10 kt. The tailwind component corresponding to the wind report provided by the ATC tower at 09:02 (wind from 270° (magnetic) at 11 knots) is 10.8 kt., i.e., higher than the limit. However, the Captain stated in his interview that he and the First Officer “acknowledged this call and agreed that the tailwind component was 9-10 kt. and it was within limits.” The error in the crew’s estimate of the tailwind component is admittedly small (about 1 kt.); consequently, it is possible that if the winds reported by the tower had been more consistent with the winds recorded by the ASOS (and computed using the FDR data), which were 3 to 5 kt. higher than those reported by the tower, the crew might have recognized that the AOM tailwind limit was exceeded and abandoned the approach.
And, it wasn't just the one knot over the AOM tailwind limit that caused the plane to overrun the runway according to the Aircraft Performance Study:
The higher than expected tailwind, the longer than normal touchdown point, and to a lesser degree, the faster than nominal approach speed all contributed to the overrun. However, of the three, the long touchdown is the most significant contributor. The airplane could have stopped on the runway with the high approach speed and tailwind even if the touchdown had been 312 ft. longer than the nominal 1,500 ft. from the threshold; however, with the actual touchdown point of 2,504 ft. from the threshold, either the tailwind or faster approach speed by themselves would have prevented a stop on the runway. Per the SWA AOM, once the airplane overflew the nominal 1,500 ft. touchdown point, the PWB landing distance calculations became “invalid” and “a go-around [was] the better option.”
They did discuss the threats in the briefing.
0824:52.9 HOT-2 yeah it's wet with a tailwind...and # short runway.
0824:58.3 HOT-1 awesome.
0825:00.0 HOT-2 yeah that's great. what could possibly go wrong.