Originally Posted by
krismiler
Unfortunately for hub airlines, the new travel arrangements will favour point to point flights and smaller aircraft. Mixing of travellers during enroute connections will be avoided and the numbers involved won't be filling the new generation of VLAs anytime soon. A B787 from Europe direct to Bangkok will be happening well before a connecting flight using A380s via the Middle East is a realistic proposition.
I disagree. Weak demand between mid size city pairs at the beginning of the recovery is more likely to favour the hub concept. There will be some exceptions like the one you mentioned but, in general, demand aggregators like EK's model will be able to get operations much quicker and with much smaller risk. Evidence shows that even at the worst time of covid in terms of restrictions, a stop in a connecting hub had no effect in where you could travel to or from, provided the recipient country would allow you in.
Originally Posted by
krismiler
Once a pair of countries have achieved an adequate level of vaccination of their populations, they will be able to open up to each other. A vaccinated traveller with a negative COVID test is unlikely to spread the virus on arrival in a country with a +70% vaccination rate.
I have the same views as you on this, I am not sure WHO and majority of countries agree on it though. It just takes a single passenger with a single variant that renders the jabs ineffective enough and then the whole concept crumbles. How likely that is, I have no idea.