Originally Posted by
3Greens
Perhaps you didn’t pay enough attention at school then to enable you to look at the detail behind the headlines?
what if you’re not an “at risk 60 year old male”? Turns out there’s not much change from the “old variant”; so it’s far from a 30 % increase in mortality. But perhaps it was a long time since you were last at school?
i wouldn’t pay any attention to anything coming out of the UK. . Boris Johnson yesterday revealed that the Kent coronavirus strain - responsible for the soaring Covid cases recorded in the last month - could be 30 per cent more deadly than older versions of the virus.
However the PM has been accused of 'scaremongering' after failing to present any evidence to back up the terrifying development.
And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) - the body of scientists which has advised the Government throughout the pandemic - are only 50 per cent sure the new variant could be more fatal.
Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) - the subcommittee of Sage which discussed the deadliness of the new strain on Thursday - said the claim that the variant is 30 per cent more lethal is on a 'very fragile' base of evidence and accused the Government of 'exploiting public fear' over the virus.
He told website Reaction: ' The 30 per cent more lethal claim about the virus rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence. NERVTAG has expressed limited confidence in this figure, which should not be the basis for public alarm.'
'It is right not to hide possibly bad news but it is also quite wrong to exploit it to increase public fear and to try to shut down debates about the exit strategy from the current restrictions.'
Chief Scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said during the press conference that evidence the strain is indeed more deadly is still 'weak'.
Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle today revealed it is not 'absolutely clear' if a mutation of the virus first found in Kent is more dangerous.
Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it is an 'open question' but not a 'game changer' in terms of dealing with the pandemic.
He said: ''The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open. There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus," he said.
'In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse.'
And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, said it was still too early to be drawing 'strong conclusions' about the suggested increased mortality rate.
He said he was ‘quite surprised’ by the announcement and recommended waiting ‘a week or two more... before we draw really strong conclusions’.