If the airline cancelled it now, 7 weeks in advance, I’d be rebooking with another airline almost instantly. Just because a few people on here believe “nobody is booking anything”, does mean it’s true.
I'm as keen to travel and to fly again as anybody I know. But I have to disagree with you. Having spent far too much time over the past ten months hanging on phonelines listening to muzak, being passed from pillar to post, filling in claim forms and sending 'evidence of purchase', keeping track of future travel vouchers and sending dozens of emails - just why would I be tempted to put myself through anything like that again? When C-19 kicked in, I had 49 flights booked (plus accommodation, rail tickets, coach tickets). Other trips were planned too - fortunately, I didn't go ahead with booking those.
NONE of those 49 booked flights worked out for me. Two of the flights (MAN-KIR-MAN) went ahead as planned, but quarantine rules in Ireland meant that I was barred from travelling. Ryanair kept the money. The other 47 flights were unusable, either because they were cancelled outright or because some sectors within a multi-stop itinerary were cancelled. I did make four flights during the Summer - two rebooked return trips at short notice using voucher redemptions. EasyJet MAN-BFS-MAN went ahead at the third rebooking attempt. Beyond airlines, I also lost three booked cruises. One is in the hands of ABTA because the cruiseline went into liquidation - endless paperwork for that one, and told to expect six months wait time for reimbursement. One cancelled voyage to be refunded (still waiting). One rebooked to a year later but now unlikely to go ahead anyway. Two of my airline claims are still ongoing, including the lamentable Air Europa who have yet to refund a flight from April 2020 and claim they 'can't do anything' on the rare occasions they deign to answer the phone at all. There will be no new business put their way by me. Some other carriers genuinely did their best to be helpful - I'll remember that. My future business will favour them.
Now, I don't write any of that for the sake of complaining. Frustrating though they are, these are the very definition of 'first world problems'. I see people who have lost someone close to them because of this virus, or who have been ill themselves. I see others made redundant, furloughed, indebted, depressed, despairing. Especially within this industry. And I remind myself constantly how fortunate I am to enjoy reasonable health and financial security. I'm fine and busy in my own space until circumstances change. BUT ... why on Earth would I even begin to contemplate booking another bunch of flights to countries which very likely won't allow me in at all, and if they do I'll need a C-19 test certificate arranged at great hassle and expense very close to departure? Then possibly a repeat performance before flying back to the UK. And then I could be required to quarantine as well upon return. All in the hope of visiting a destination where everything is closed and one is required to be masked-up 24/7 (if allowed out and about at all)? No - the only new bookings I'll be making are those redeploying vouchers which would otherwise expire worthless. And I'll use those for flights as far into the future as are available for booking.
My real plan for S2021 is to wait for certainty. When a destination is reliably opened up for travel without off-the-scale red tape, then I will book to fly there at very short notice. Attempting to beat Grant Shapps' 'travel corridor hokey-kokey' again. Yes, that risks a higher price-point, but the downside of the alternatives makes the supplement worthwhile for me. I place a high value on my time, and all those hours wasted chasing refunds won't come back. If those short-notice flights are crazy-expensive, then I'll just pass on them anyway. It looks like my first few trips will have to be within the UK - maybe just within England only at this rate - and that is fine if so. My New Year's resolution is to avoid setting myself up for more avoidable soul-destroying admin paper chases.
I would suggest that there are many more folks out there thinking as I do. The only reasons I can think of for booking discretionary leisure flights in this climate is to redeem expiring travel vouchers or to secure very specific high-demand travel dates due to individual circumstances. Travel companies and airlines such as Jet2 are quite right to hunker down and conserve cash through this period of uncertainty. To answer the point made in the original quote, I'm not saying that
nobody is booking anything. But I am saying that very few are - and why would they? Which means that most new bookings for our airlines are voucher redeployments which bring in no new cash. And in most cases, the airlines are having to allow date-changes for free to secure even that business.
Anyone who believes that the airlines should just carry on flying fresh air regardless is in fantasyland. They must conserve cash above all. It is survival mode out there. I think H1/2021 is a total write-off already. The populations of Continental Europe (amongst others) won't be sufficiently vaccinated to allow 'normality' to resume for many months yet. And I write that with a very heavy heart.