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Old 7th Jan 2021, 19:35
  #34 (permalink)  
Hot 'n' High
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Here 'n' there!
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Update - I see Sam Ting Wongs' post to which I refer has gone - I'll leave this post in place - Mods, please delete if now superfluous.

Sam Ting Wong, I apologise as my comments were not intended to be condescending nor hypocritical - maybe "sad despair mixed with weariness". What those people did as individuals is, as you say, to be highly commended and extremely brave, just as Tiananmen Square was 3 decades ago, and countless other examples over the years, Tibet being yet another good example.

The point I was making (badly it seems) is that the response of the HK protesters was, I suspect, based on what they believed would happen during and after the transition. That vision was generated by what Britain believed it had negotiated with China ahead of the withdrawal. But was that "vision" realistic in the first place? We have many cases where Britain has assumed things would work out in a certain way when, in fact, from those on the ground, it was quite obvious that a disaster was opening up. Zimbabwe is a classic case where they thought one thing would happen where those on the ground knew what the true result would be when Mugabe seized power. The result was cataclysmic - and predictable - for the entire population - and the West did nothing. And that was against a tin-pot Dictator where no-one actually knows how many were dumped down mineshafts. Lets say 100,000 which falls in the lower end of the estimates I've come across - and that's before you even consider the Zimbawean economy - if that's what you call it - and those who have died of avoidable famine and political thuggery.

If, as I believe, the HK handover agreement for 50 years was destined to unravel earlier based on China's "form", then the valiant struggles of the protesters is based on being sold an unachievable dream in the first place. That is the great sadness. Of course, "we are where we are" and there are rallying cries about it - Lord Patten said today/yesterday that "if the EU went ahead with the economic deal with China, which has not yet been ratified by the European parliament, it would make a 'mockery' of Europe's ambitions to be taken seriously as a global and economic player.". So that has to be backed up by action or else it is yet more hollow words.

My frustration is not with the poor protesters - but with what I believe was an unrealistic goal from the outset - that the "one country, two systems" would remain until 2047. My argument is that the protesters were let down and that a more realistic acceptance by Britain back in the 80's and early 90's of how a more rapid transition should have been managed was not pursued - the 50 year deal seems very much like "kicking a can down the road" until it becomes another generations problem. Beijing signed to get a signature - that was it and they now are clearly tired of "kicking the can". So, where do we go on a global basis? China has never been one for backing down and they have considerable expansionist plans which involve far, far more than HK. It's clear the Western world is undecided as to how far to push and what can be achieved. The risk of a major confrontation is growing - the out-turn of which is something I don't think anyone can know.

However, from my connections in Beijing, the people seem to get on, have a reasonable way of life with, I know, areas of abject poverty too. But China has been improving conditions - and will continue to do so. You, yourself said at Post #6 that "The ascent of China and Asia has just begun, and with a loyal government in charge HK will have the continuous support of Beijing. I believe Hong Kong will be one of the richest and most prosperous cities of the 21th century, globally, not only in China.". I guess the question, for HK at least, is would it be better to accept the "50 year deal" was unachievable so work with Beijing and accept that HK is making the best of a bad job and that full integration happens before 2047 - or to hold out for broke. That is for HK locals to decide. As for the wider expansionist plans by Beijing; well, that's a whole new problem the West must try and figure out.
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