Is Summer 2022 a realistic recovery estimation?
That depends on who you are talking about, domestic travel and typical low cost routes yes. People will trade down, and those not flying will be replaced by those who would normally go further afield. Long haul and premium will be the last to bounce back, with much of the world likely to be restricted for the immediate future.
The travel bubble concept has failed to materialise, except for possibly Australia/New Zealand, as many countries which appeared to be clear are now entering second and third waves of the virus. With the vaccine now available, expect rich first world countries to open up first to each other. UK/USA are currently vaccinating their populations, and might be able to relax many restrictions on travel between them later this year.
Much of EKs network will remain closed for the immediate future and preference will be for direct flights in economy class where possible,