After a few very optimistic posts to finish the dreadful year and also some official and unofficial statements from EK management, perhaps is time for a recap:
- EK management have made clear in the last few days they will invite "many" of those who "left the business" to rejoin "when demand returns". They have also confirmed that, at the moment, they have enough crew for the short and medium term.
- EK is utilizing the whole 777 fleet at the moment and about 5 A380s. A dozen or more 777s will be retired this year. Any expansion in 21-22 will have to be carried out with A380s. If we ignore airframe rotations, over 110 A380s remain effectively unused. About half (60) are leased and another half (60) are owned. They all have close to zero market value.
- Demand/traffic remains stuck at 50% - 60% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Vaccines are being approved and produced across the developed world with wide availability expected towards Q3/Q4 2021. Developing countries will only gain full access in 2022. This is consistent with scenario 2 of Eurocontrol forecast - return to 2019 passenger levels in 2026.
- Downside risks remain: vaccine production and distribution, further mutations that might make vaccines not effective, depressed world economic outlook.
- Summer for US domestic market might resemble pre-pandemic traffic but seems like Europe is lagging. Australia (one of EK's biggest market) might continue with its self-imposed isolation this year and is planning to begin vaccinations in the second half of 2021.
Is Summer 2022 a realistic recovery estimation?
By then, most of EK's redundant pilots will have been more than 2 years away from active flying duties.
Training effort to bring them back to speed would be colossal.