Is it true? Are the great unwashed (a380) going to be called back to duty this summer? Unlikely to be that fast but things are looking up.
Whilst we can argue about the timing, the global vaccination programme has been an unquestionable success. It puts all the doomsday scenarios back under the bed.
Back in April/May - the Airlines simply had no idea if it would take years to discover a working vaccine, if ever, and were forced to make deep cuts to protect the business. Now, that's all changed; There is some certainty coming to ops and with it plans can be put in motion.
At last count, almost 10 billion doses are being produced next year; A figure that's only rising. That's enough to get the worlds frequent flyers, and everyone vulnerable vaccinated. With access to multiple types of vaccines, the chances of long term protection increase. The Oxford vaccine is cheap and can be stored at room temperature for weeks, enabling wide distribution.
Still, I can imagine many cautious states maintaining border closure until Q4 2021. But with growing criticism, welfare and frustration - Governments will surely have to lift restrictions or face pitchforks.
In UAE, already two different vaccines have had initial roll outs. That'll soon enough be a good chunk of EK's local/expat traffic eligible, and it paves the way to further travel corridors, and becoming a safe haven for tourists. The UK corridor, for example, was a huge success.
In any case
The word is, front-line staff are coming back sooner or later. Lot's of unpaid leave pilots have already been rostered training to get back to line. The question is, how many of the discarded will come back?
The answer: Most.
But the ME3 have a looming Captain squeeze.
- Those with large enough PF to retire early are Captains.
- The ones too old or sick to come back are Captains.
- Those with contracting opportunities elsewhere are Captains.
- Those going into TRE or management ground jobs are Captains.
- Those with kids in important later school years are Captains.
The FOs working as amazon delivery drivers? Yeah they'll all be back in a flash.
The balance will be something like 95% of FOs : 75% of Captains will come back. With Captains already in shorter numbers, it's bums on CM1 seats that I predict to limit the number of a380s
able to fly again.
And the sheer volume of rejoiners needing to be retrained to line will likely prohibit any command upgrade courses for a couple years.
The longer they wait to invite people back, or at least get them in the system - the higher the number taking opportunities/careers change/retirement/settling elsewhere. And the numbers needing a longer TTC, type rating, or command course will increase. Not a good place to be in.
This process must be complete within 18 months so they can get a semblance of normality and spare capacity to be able to train newcomers or new Captains.
Majority of leavers have license and medical expiry in July-October. That will be worth keeping on top of for Flight Ops, far more than trying to perfectly time the industry pick up. Don't be surprised if your 'interview' sim, is also your revalidation.
The vaccine will be here. Borders will open. Quarantines/Masks will ease. People will be flying. And the ME3 will need pilots.
Merry Xmas