In my view, R3 however useful will not be built because, the long term situation that was created by the failure to expand LHR in the last 30 years is that:
- Regional airfields expanded
- LCCs jumped into these 'local' fields
- The big European carriers jumped into these to collect into their hubs
- The ME carriers jumped into MAN (in particular) to collect into their hubs
- These regional fields provide great convenience and jobs
- The chances of the Euro + ME carriers saying 'Oooh Goody, we can get dozens of new slots into LHR' are miniscule
- The chances of the European LCCs wanting or getting slots is also miniscule
- The chances of pax in the West Country, Midlands, North and Scotland saying, 'Oooh Goody, we can now go back to making a transit in LHR' are zero
For those of us in the South East we also have Eurostar / Eurotunnel and ferry ports. My closest is LTN but LHR is (in typical traffic) only 40/45 mins. I can get to STN, LCY and LGW if I want. So demand in the South East is, now, over provided. If you are near MAN, you can make a one-stop to a range of destinations that was unthinkable in 2000.