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Old 4th Dec 2020, 21:14
  #965 (permalink)  
calypso
 
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Your statement assumes that
A. if they pull the plug the creditors can recoup their debt
B. If the leasing companies pull the aircraft they can find another airline to take them

Both assumptions are no correct in my view. The creditors calculation is wether it is better to bankrupt the company and get 10 cents on the dollar or keep it going and get 50 cents on the dollar but in shares. Each creditor will have their own view on that but there are arguments both ways. In any case the Irish court can force creditors to take a hair cut against their will. That is one of the main differences between a voluntary re-structuring and the Examinership process.

The lease companies don't want the aircraft back (yet). Better to be paid in shares and have the aircraft maintained and stored at Norwegian´s expense than being paid nothing and having to store them and maintain them yourself. Most leasing companies are not really geared up to look after the physical assets.

The 99% reduction is just a technical resizing that does not change the total value of shares held. It is done to avoid having shares trade at very low values.

Whatever the financial wizardry fresh new cash will need to be found in order to survive. Wether that happens depends on how much debt is written off, the soundness of the business plan against the evolution of the economy (ie Covid) and how much fresh equity is given for the investment. We know there is money in flying people on holiday from Scandi to the Med in a 737 so that part is probably worth someone investing. Is there money in flying to NY for 150 bucks in a 787? with a despatch reliability of 50%? how long will it take for that reliability to be 99%? will someone invest in that? how far is the break even point? who knows
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