‘A couple of CSG deployments may just concentrate minds....’
Not really. If Royal really needs to go somewhere and do something, rather than simply posturing, conducting TV friendly beach assaults and attending Cocker-Ps, the first thing that will occur will be 4-6 Chinooks arriving on board. Yes they can’t fold, but they offer about 3-4 times the punch per deck spot of the Merlin and, crucially, are capable of carrying the heavy kit (vehicles/guns) that Merlin simply cannot.
The proposed NGR is a ‘medium’ helicopter replacement. Merlin is only a ‘medium’ in terms of performance and lift, it is a ‘heavy’ in terms of space (wider / taller than a Chinook, almost as long and arguably with a worse downwash) and in cost to both buy and operate. It makes complete sense for Puma/Merlin (CHF) to be replaced by a common airframe. The French have been even more extreme, planning to replace 400+ Gazelles, Fennecs, Alouettes, Pumas, Dauphins, Panthers and Cougars with just over 160 H160Ms. IMHO, this bit of industrial protectionism sinks the Euro-NGR initiative. I simply can’t see there being enough demand to build a new type at an affordable price. NH-90 has produced a curate’s egg of a machine; highly sophisticated, but also fragile and expensive - especially when compared directly to later models of UH-60. Does Europe beat its chest and throw Billions at another political compromise or buy FLRAA off the shelf (or licence build it)?