Border Openings
IATA says 4.5 billion passengers flew in 2019 from a population of 7.8 billion people. Does that mean over half the World flew last year? Of course not. (If you flew LHR to SIN to MEL return on EK, that would count as 6 flights in these stats.)
Whilst impossible to know for sure, calculated guesses work out just 7% of the Worlds population have flown. This leads to an estimation of ~550m individual people that fly a year.
https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-pl...ane-180957719/
3 of the 11 vaccines in stage 3 trials have already declared success. Between just those initial 3 there are already 3.3bn doses that will be rolled out in 2021. And that's only accelerating through transfer of knoweldge. An example of which is Oxford recently licensing the technology to Thailand to set up and manufacture their own vaccine, with delivery happening within 6 months.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...nufacturing--2
Not to mention the other 8 vaccines in advanced stages that will also add to this number of potential doses.
So with just the initially planned 3.3 billion doses, that is already enough for 1.65 billion people. And while manufacturers have signed up to COVAX, an initiative to distribute vaccines to poor countries, the vast majority of this initial run will go to Western economies and their combined 1bn population.
Therefore I think it's realistic to expect borders to be open in 2022, and importantly the relatively few people that could afford to travel on planes in 2019, will be vaccinated and fit to fly.
Passenger Demand
Again focussing on those who are rich enough to travel, Governments are gearing up huge stimulus packages. Debt is being written off, money printed, tax delayed, loans extended and jobs protected. The travel and hospitality industry will be offering huge discounts, and incentives to recapture lost business. Everything from Airlines to Car rentals.
https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-ceo...r-2020-demand/
And with a shift to tech companies and digital services, many pension funds and investments have bounced back.
Airlines reporting massive underlying demand for travel as restrictions have come and gone.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...stmas-12142709
Speaking of which, do you think Emirates and Dubai will cautiously sit and watch Qatar ramp up and take all the traffic through Doha? Or Singapore/Cathay/Turkish?
I'm pretty sure flight capacity will be there. Just not profits. And capacity will take pilots.
Now Emirates has signed up to be a distributer of the vaccine over the next couple years. These flight will take away from potential passenger flights.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/emir...hallenge-.html
Recruitment
2021 is a write off for international travel. Initially I expected a return to flying in 2023, but 2022 is now looking like we'll see a strong recovery in demand. Business travel will take a hit for sure and be slow to recover. But I also anticipate more economy travellers wanting to fly business for that social distance and peace of mind. Crucially, I fully expect the airlines will be flying and competing in 2022, fuelled by subsidies, discounts, hotel partners and travel agent deals.
We should also recognise that unlike most carriers, a significant percentage of EK business class travel is from wealthy expats, and locals. Both groups will continue to fly.
Airlines, as always, will underestimate just how long it takes to get people back on line, and greedily try to squeeze remaining workforce as much as possible. With the 777 busy flying cargo and vaccine distribution - the only way to ramp up passenger ops in 2022 will be through recruitment or callbacks. This process will have to start within a year to have any chance of success. With the UPL guys, they only have enough to operate ~40 a380s from the 125. As an expat airline, it takes longer than usual to recruit people.
Now a question to ask yourself is: What kind of management outlook is there at Emirates? Optimistic and opportunistic - or careful and cautious?
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
All this to say, chin up fellas. It's coming, and the World will need your skills and experience again.