It’s going to be a combination of old and new, I think. Old, in that to access various countries you’re going to have to provide proof of vaccination and probably have a test for CV-19 as well, like for Yellow Fever and similar pathogens (minus the test). New, in that carriers may start to insist on the same due to public demand - wouldn’t it be nice on a long flight to know that everyone on board had been vaccinated?
For Covid to reduce to background annoyance level, we need herd immunity, through exposure (illness/death) and/or vaccines. Which would most people prefer and which will get the World back on its feet in the shortest time frame?