The UAE may possibly be misrepresenting its COVID case numbers in an attempt to open up to other countries. Singapore had very few deaths due to COVID as most of the cases occurred in fit young migrant workers, rather than general population and the dormitories were easy to lock down to contain the spread. Out of the 58 000 cases, 94% were in the dormitories and there have been only 28 fatalities.
If the situation is similar in Dubai, a cover up would be relatively easy as they wouldn’t be dealing with large numbers of bodies.
COVID case numbers are spreading like wildfire in the important markets of Europe, USA and India. Travel bubbles are a highly restrictive solution and won’t provide pax in the numbers the airlines need. Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea which were thought to have beaten the virus are showing a worrying increase in cases.
The best solution is a vaccine, and recent news has been very encouraging with several highly effective ones likely to be available in the next few weeks. Widespread use coming in the early part of next year.
However long haul transit traffic, particularly at the premium end will be the last to recover. Unlike other hub airlines, EK don’t have smaller aircraft to downgrade to. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators, and with SQ grounding the A380 and most B777s they have stopped selling suites and first class for the next year.
Bill Gates predicts a 50% reduction in business travel post COVID, and even if he’s only half right it’s still a major drop.
EK need a complete restructure in its business model for it to complete going forwards. Long range, premium travel in large aircraft needs to change to smaller aircraft doing shorter flights with more emphasis on volume passengers. The A321 and B787 appear to be preferred types for the next few years.