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Old 16th Nov 2020, 09:41
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Hot 'n' High
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Here 'n' there!
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AOGs, I believe that the "furlough scheme" (or, in the UK, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) to give it its official title) is designed to do what it says on the tin. Thus, it requires the person to be employed for them to be given "furlough" and that the Govt intent of "furlough" (UK certainly) is that it means people will be kept in the post for when the recovery starts rather than being laid off and re-hired. "Furlough" is not indefinite; it's until the respective Govts close the scheme. In the UK that's now, as of 31 Oct, been extended again to December. It may extend again - or it may not.....

Of course, whether the recovery leads to a requirement to have everyone back to work when "furlough" ends is a HUGE question. Once "furlough" is ended, I suspect those who can be tasked (ie there is work for them to do) will start working again but, sadly, where there is contraction in the Industry, a number will come off "furlough" and be made redundant. This works across every Industry - aviation is no different. Shops, pubs, engineering companies, hairdressers .... it's the same across the board. Companies can "buy time" for now before a final market evaluation when "furlough" finally ends and any downsizing takes place to meet the new market levels.

Of course, many 1,000s have already been laid off in various Industries in countries where "furlough" does not exist or Companies have decided not to avail themselves of the Scheme. However, I fear, there will be a further wave of redundancies to follow when "furlough" ends. Not wishing to be pessimistic, just realistic, the reverberations of this Pandemic will rumble on for years!
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