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Old 16th Nov 2020, 08:47
  #4643 (permalink)  
Red Four
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
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I don't believe it is helpful to try and second guess the operational/safety decisions taken by the pilots on the night - we were not there.

For instance, a reported wind of 170/08 kts could actually be hiding a wind speed of up to 17 kts without it being reported as a gust, or even apparent - the crew would know this and factor it in appropriately. The direction of 170 degrees could also be hiding a significant element of variationin direction (up to 55 degrees) before it was reported as such, which could mean a further chunk of potential tailwind to be assessed rather than just the bare 170 direction might suggest. Any peaks of wind speed (up to 17 kts) would be more likely to have a veered (more westerly) tailwind component, compared to the lulls in speed.
On top of this, there is the forecast 2000ft wind to be taken into account immediately after getting airborne, which would have, on average, have been from a more westerly direction and at at a higher speed than 170/08 kts.
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