OK465 the speed is ADS-B data driven and it is relative to position and not what the aircraft is indicating (i.e. a vertical path would theoretically indicate zero speed). It looks like a LOC and no visible bump in descent rate to show a recovery attempt. The path track shows them maneuvering in the box and the turn to the west is not towards a viable and usual "practice" field. You are correct this is way too low to be doing spin entry and recognition according to the syllabus.
This looks to be normal ops in the box doing low speed maneuvering. The aircraft recovers and accelerates from a series of low speed turns at a steady altitude of 8000'. It then accelerates in level flight (which would indicate an addition of thrust) to 250ish knots at 8000'. The rate of increase likely indicates they had a clean airplane with gear and flaps up. When reaching 250ish knots there is a loss of altitude and a loss of speed. This could be an engine failure as you don't usually lose speed and altitude especially if you just gained speed back in level flight. Something caused them to go down and slow down. (keeping in mind this is ADS-B speed so I may be reading too much into it). This burble happens after a turn to the west. They are steady on heading and level and speed decays which also could indicate a loss of thrust. This decay lasts a very short time and then they depart to a steady state descent to impact and we have no idea of actual airspeed of the aircraft given the rapid rate of descent.
Megan, good insight on the prop driving to feather in an engine failure If they had an engine failure. My experience is the low oil pressure feather event is a very slow occuring event and full feather likely wouldn't occur in the very short time from from controlled maneuvering possible engine out to LOC and impact in this case. It would seem that the crew feathered the prop is the most likely given the timeframe.
There is something else her from incapacitation, a bird strike, or some form of catastrophic airframe or control failure. The instructor had a very good reputation and was very experienced. There has to be more here than a simple LOC and spin. The acceleration while level and turn to the west and descent while losing speed then complete LOC is puzzling. Add no radio call and the mystery deepens.
The squadron is back up and flying at this time. I hope the accident team gets insight into this one. Losing two crew is tragic, not knowing what happened and preventing the same circumstance to cause another hull and crew loss would make it more so.
Last edited by Ugly Jet Captain; 12th Nov 2020 at 04:45.