I think Jet2 will do very well - TUI have really not covered themselves in glory with their customer service and handling of refunds during this crisis (take a look at TUI Vs Jet2Holidays Trustpilot reviews). I think a lot of people will give them a go (including from the Welsh side of the bridge) especially when some of their poor TUI experiences are so recent. I wonder if CWL were in the mix for a South West base and what they were able to bring to the table ? Anyway, I think avoiding a TUI monopoly on package holidays in the region can only be a good thing for consumers, albeit a blow for the Welsh airport. Jet2’s customer service reputation and string of awards is enviable. They also have a lot of support from independent agents and the likes of Hays travel (who now have a sizeable presence in South Wales). Whether TUI will have a response to this for the region time will tell. TUI seem a bit slow and not hugely nimble (in comparison) during this current climate.
Jet2 could overtake TUI in terms of ATOL licences in the near future - quite an achievement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them at LGW before long.