Long live the bases!
There seem to be those on this forum that WANT the bases closed. Not sure why? Most likely jealously.
Cathay has always used the bases as a dangling carrot. That is both as a recruiting tool for deluded joiners, or as a glimmer of hope for trapped ex-pats who thought they would have been home many years ago.
They may well be cheaper for Cathay than a HK based pilot, but if so, not by much. From a cost of living point of view, there is no comparison. HK is unsustainable for the majority of ex-pats wanting a certain standard of living. For some reason, Cathay has a reluctance about putting people on the bases. I have always thought it was a reluctance to deal with first-world labour protections. Having said that, those very labour protections are looking like biting the based in the arse.
My prediction (depending on the laws of each base): Redundancy offered or return to HK on COS18. Bases kept open, but unmanned. When everything settles down, base positions offered again on reduced terms.
It is a rumour network after all.