Originally Posted by
Maoraigh1
Were Spanish farmworkers in the UK for fruit and veg harvest? Would they have much contact in Spain with UK holiday tourists?
Extremely unlikely that Spanish farm workers (i.e. Spanish nationals) would travel to the UK for work. It possible that migrant workers in Spain would move on to the UK mid to late summer so definitely a plausible route.
On the wider point, the phylogenetic analysis in the study suggests that whilst the 20A.EU1 variant originated in agricultural workers, it was the dominant variant across Spain prior to quarantine travel to the UK. As such, and given the relative numbers, it is much more likely to have been brought back by tourists. To put things in perspective, the paper suggests a minimum of 21 separate introductions to the UK, but that 2/3 of all UK cases in the cluster can be traced back to a single introduction event! Really brings home how much impact rare events can have when you are dealing with highly infectious diseases.