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Old 1st Nov 2020, 20:19
  #1976 (permalink)  
C441
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 356
Received 115 Likes on 46 Posts
For Lovejoy to take that seat she needs to be ahead of Singh at the sixth round of preference distributions such that she picks up the LNP's preferences. That is very unlikely to occur. Lovejoy currently trails Singh by 710 votes and there are 1,255 votes for fourth place and below candidates. Lovejoy's problem is that 437 of those votes are split between One Nation and Palmer's UAP so she's not likely to pick up many of them whereas Singh should pick some, if not most, of them up.
Yep, absolutely correct. I was looking at earlier figures where the projection was that the Greens candidate would slightly outpoll the LNP even though she was 400 votes behind at the time. Grace Grace, the Labor incumbent, seems now certain to retain the seat.
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