Originally Posted by
C441
And as an aside…… the Greens candidate in our electorate is third on first preferences (28%), but is in the box seat to win once preferences are distributed, currently leading the sitting Labor candidate 53% to 47%. It does make one wonder sometimes…..
Ordinarily it would be highly unusual for a candidate placed third on primary votes to win a seat once preferences are distributed. Not impossible but certainly highly unusual.
Based on the info you've shared I've inferred that you're in Grace Grace's seat of McConell where the Greens' Kirsten Lovejoy is third behind the LNP's Pinky Singh. For Lovejoy to take that seat she needs to be ahead of Singh at the sixth round of preference distributions such that she picks up the LNP's preferences. That is very unlikely to occur. Lovejoy currently trails Singh by 710 votes and there are 1,255 votes for fourth place and below candidates. Lovejoy's problem is that 437 of those votes are split between One Nation and Palmer's UAP so she's not likely to pick up many of them whereas Singh should pick some, if not most, of them up. There's also anti-Greens independent Miranda Bertram's 175 votes that will go anywhere other than to Lovejoy.
Even if Lovejoy picks up all other preferences she will not finish ahead Singh come the sixth round of distributions meaning that she will be eliminated and her votes will be distributed as preferences; they will flow predominantly to Labor. Grace will end up retaining the seat with about a 60/40 2PP.