Originally Posted by
Just This Once...
Sounds more like a forecast than a deliberate action. Full time trained strength has been drifting ever-downwards for years, despite the targeted measures. Dipping below 29,000 by summer of next year is already baked into the manpower plan. Arguably the RAF would have been below 29k earlier this year, if the external job market had not taken a hit due to covid:
07/17 - 30,650
07/18 - 30,280
07/19 - 29,930
01/20 - 29,800
04/20 - 29,690
07/20 - 29,610
The hard statistics under this is the percentage leaving the RAF as Voluntary Outflow, rather than reaching the end of their current engagement. In the last year of statistics 64% of those leaving the RAF did so under VO terms. Only 25% of those leaving had managed to reach the end of their engagement. The missing 10% are for things like medical, disciplinary, changing service etc.
People are voting with their feet and review periods do little for stability - they tend to increase outflow.
The other thing to note is that, even for those leaving at the end of their engagement, this implies (for some) that they are choosing not to re-engage for longer. It's only people at retirement age that the RAF wouldn't keep on, so someone leaving at age 40 is choosing to do so.