Originally Posted by
tartare
Very interesting reading.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cg...cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:
The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.
I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.
If you know how to read the warning signs you can see it. I have always believed that a cetain Intelligence agence was fully aware of the Argentinians adventure in advance, people not turning up to their usual place, being very very busy, movement of equipment, training going on. Just a question of what they did with it.
Bearing in mind UK took a while to get the task force on its way with all supplies and this was a competent, capable, well trained force then Argentina would have taken weeks longer.
It is not the noise to look for but the quiet and changes to habits as people really are creatures of habit.