Apart from those unfortunate pilots who lost their jobs, there are trainees sufficiently deep into their training who will be issued with a CPL/IR in the next 12 months, with absolutely no prospect of the RHS in the foreseeable future.
Many wannabes would have considered starting this year had C-19 not caused the implosion.
Possibly 25% (?) will no longer consider aviation as an occupation and do something else.
The 75% left will be standing by to start so that they achieve licence issue & MCC/APS on the crest of the employment wave. Add to that the nominal wannabes with expected start dates 2021/22/23.
The SUPPLY & DEMAND curves will determine what the employer will pay. Simple Economics.
Historically they often got out of ‘synch’ as boom and bust occurred. 8-10 years from now a pilot shortage will occur. Ideal for those at the start of secondary school just now.
Spending even for a ‘value for money’ Modular course requires a return on investment greater than the minimum wage as has been suggested, even for those who funded their training without incurring debt.