Mustering operators are placing bets who will win the battle between El Niņo and La Niņa. Why?
More than half of the Australian Aircraft Helicopter Register is made up of Robinson helicopters. A major portion of these are engaged in the mustering industry. CASA data suggests the mustering group fly more hours than all other commercial activities during a drought free year. Australia's weather is influenced by many climate drivers. El Niņo and La Niņa have the strongest influence on year-to-year climate variability for most of the country. They are part of a natural cycle known as the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO cycle loosely operates over timescales from one to eight years.
Best bet at present is La Niņa which means: Increased rainfall across Australia, cooler daytime temperatures (south of the tropics), warmer overnight temperatures (in the north), a shift in temperature extremes, decreased frost risk, greater tropical cyclone numbers and earlier monsoon onset.
Increased rainfall means the cattle industry can recover from the recent devastating droughts. Eventually, cattle will need to be moved to better pastures, or to satisfy an increasing demand for Australian beef from China and Indonesia.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has predicted a wet summer. The La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific are set to persist through summer. Most weather prediction models suggest the La Nina will strengthen, peaking in December. "Around half the models anticipate a strong event, meaning there is a possibility it could reach similar strength to the La Nina of 2010-12," BOM says in a statement issued on Tue 13 Oct 2020.
"However, models forecast this event will be shorter, possibly ending in the first quarter of 2021. "La Nina typically increases the chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring," BOM says. "Above average summer rainfall is also typical across eastern Australia. Current climate outlooks indicate November 2020 to January 2021 will be wetter than average for much of the country.
Question? Who bets on El Niņo or La Niņa???