Originally Posted by
PilotLZ
I fully endorse your view. Even if there's no shortage of CPL holders with undefined experience, a shortage of experienced candidates is enough to put the boot on the other foot once again. By my most avant-garde estimates, producing a quality Captain takes a bare minimum of 7-8 years (initial training - 2 years, FO experience - 4-5 years, another year or two of command experience to settle in and actually find your feet in that LHS). Producing a line trainer thus takes at least 10 years, zero to hero.
The question is, who's going to fill that void if the top part of the list gets shaved off by early retirement, those in the lower half walk away from flying in large numbers and new entrants put their training plans on hold and potentially bin them while waiting for a complete recovery?
Back on the subject of training - cadetships will likely not be a thing for a couple of years as the last thing on the mind of a financially troubled airline is long-term strategic investment. But those who left high school this summer or are about to next summer have some seriously good prospects if they play their cards wisely. Go to uni - that's 3-4 years spent in a quality way. Do as much as you can of your CPL in the meantime. Before you know it, it's 2025 out there, you hold a degree and a CPL and the doors are open everywhere. You're fully equipped with a licence and a substantial backup qualification. And you're far better positioned than those who will barely start training in 5 or 7 years.
That's a lot of debt to roll the dice on aviation. I think the younger generation have been hounded so much for being 'financially unstable' that they will pick safe, risk free jobs. My guess is what will be left is the rich entitled kids who have parents with fat wallets bankrolling their way to a CPL, no matter how many repeats it takes.