Originally Posted by
Derfred
Ah, but you did, didn’t you! My fault, sorry, I started it. We can discuss that on another thread.
No-one knows how COVID is going to play out, nor do they know the timeframe.
All I am suggesting is that at some point it will be all sorted out along with economic activity resuming, and when it does, the pent-up demand will possibly blow all gloomy predictions out of the water.
That’s the moment you want to have your CPL finished, a few bush hours, and ready to ride the next wave of aviation boom.
That’s not the moment to start your training, because if you do, then I guarantee that the stock market will crash again the day after you get your CPL in the mail.
As I said, it’s contrary, but so is “buy low, sell high.”
In my first post on this thread I suggested 5 years, maybe 4-7.
Very bold of me to make such a prediction in a completely unknown climate. But on reflection, I’m going to stand by it.
“I believe that a cadet or a GA pilot starting tomorrow will have the opportunity for RPT Turbo Prop or better in 5 years (with a variance of 4-7 years).”
I’m going to take a screen-shot of this post and see how I go.
What’s your prediction?
I think you’re probably right!!
I’ve been thinking something similar. All the pilots being made redundant now, may be facing upto 2 years before any significant hiring starts again. A large number of those pilots will either retire or find another career. How many will change back to an airline gig when the music starts again? My guess would be not many.
So this will result in a large chunk of experience vanishing from the industry. When hiring starts again, it won’t take long to “pick up the slack” and run out of qualified pilots to move up.
Combined this with the view that now is NOT the time to start training, you’ll also have a lack of fresh CPL drivers coming through at the bottom. So again, when hiring starts, qualified pilots will be picked up pretty quick.
For perspective, the US domestic market took 3 years to recover after 9/11. That was also only a 30% drop. So a 4-5 year timeframe to see a recovery back to 2019 levels isn’t unreasonable, especially in international travel.