Originally Posted by
currawong
Very fair point. "Over" is probably a relative term too...
As I see it, cases are zeroing out. We are headed into summer, airbourne pathogens don't tend to do well outside of winter.
Vaccines are close. Entirely possible before our next winter when case numbers can be expected to rise again.
With the bottoming out of case numbers, borders will open. Border exemption areas are already expanding.
We are looking in good shape.
Much of the northern hemisphere though are facing surging numbers on the way into winter. Not good shape.
With care, over in Australia. With caveats.
A few issues.....
- most vaccines fail in Phase 3. So just because the Oxford etc vaccines have made it this far means jack as far as it actually passing into production.
- it’s all well and good having said vaccine pass stage 3 and enter production. But have you actually seen the production rates available? Even in China, with 5-6 vaccines in development, it would take them over 12 months using ALL their production facilities to produce enough for their entire population. So best case will probably take 12-24 months to see meaningful coverage from a vaccine that enters production.
- “with care”, with all due respect to any Victorians, the two things required to keep COVID out of the community inAustralia (good quarantine and contact tracing), have both been shown to be woefully done in that state. There’s a significant chance that Vic Health still won’t have learnt their lesson to avoid a repeat occurrence happening at some point in the next 6 months. On top of this, I’d argue the QLD and WA tracing systems have not been properly tested yet as they’ve had no significant outbreaks from the quarantine system. NSW has had multiple security guards test positive but they still managed to keep a lid on it, so I’d have confidence in their abilities.