Extrapolating out a couple of chess piece moves....
I’m no expert (something seldom said in the internet age) but those who profess to be say China isn’t yet prepared for a war that has them decisively winning due to a lack of sea lift. The Chinese can’t win on AirPower alone, they need boots on the island but don’t have the capability needed in contested waters.
So China sends a few planes over Taiwan, Taipei responds by sending a few planes over the mainland, shooting starts and the quick decisive battle needed to keep the US at bay melts away. The Chinese don’t like to lose face, short of a quick battle, there’s a good chance they would. Bring the USN in, sink one of their carriers and it’s a war no one wants, even if it’s conventional only.