The overriding impediment to the leisure market ex-UK is quarantine restrictions, both in other countries and here in the UK upon return home. People cannot plan discretionary travel amidst such uncertainty and ever-shifting rules. Few working people enjoy the option to lock themselves away for two weeks when they arrive back from holiday. Brexit concerns are way down the list, and it is in the interests of all EUMED countries with a tourism sector of size to smooth border formalities for their UK customers on that front post-December 31st. But until we have a widely-distributed vaccine with high efficacy, and whilst a 'holiday' means permanent bemuzzlement in hot climates, closed venues, and no opportunity to meet new friends closer than two metres away, leisure bookings will remain utterly depressed. Jet2 and others must plan around this, and lobby to ensure that government-imposed restrictions do not linger even one day longer than absolutely necessary. Not just quarantine: muzzles, taped-off seating areas, early closing, no-mingling rules all have to be rescinded too.
But the ex-UK leisure market does enjoy two key advantages which near-continental countries cannot match. The UK is an island nation - driving abroad comes with either an expensive ferry crossing / tunnel transit, or via car hire overseas (often non-refundable if cancelled). Remember that Germans, French, Benelux customers can drive their own cars to many popular sunshine resorts for as long as flying worries them. And no concerns about flight cancellations and vouchers for them if plans go awry. Add to this that countries including Germany and Austria have recently been imposing damaging new "green" taxes on airline operations, and there is no reason to presume that reviving leisure flying demand in Continental Europe will be an easier proposition than in the UK.
Meanwhile, most short-haul trunk routes from the UK remain subject to dire quarantine rules at one or both ends of the journey. Isle of Man, Channel Islands, Eire, France, Spain, Benelux ... pretty much all of our key short-haul markets are afflicted. Only when all these unpredictable quarantines are consigned to history can we reappraise what proportion of the market is left standing. But there is latent demand for leisure travel. Even if we were to hit 20% unemployment (hope not), that still means 80% of workers bringing in an income. And many of those in "key worker" roles have been toiling their socks off over the last few months ... they're ready to enjoy a nice break when permitted, and many of them have amassed overtime payments which will help them to afford one. Voucher redemptions will play a role too, though these won't bring in fresh income to the airlines.
Jet2, TUI and other leisure carriers must conserve cash until C-19 restrictions are lifted and then be ready to react. Flying empty aircraft around in the meantime will only burn through cash reserves all the quicker. Traditional Winter favourites such as Spain, the Canaries, the Algarve etc will not sell until quarantine rules are swept away and the threat of sudden re-imposition is removed. And bookings for Summer '21 will only come in once restrictions are ended and the threat of another interminable paperchase for vouchers is removed. As a keen traveller myself, my own plan going forward is last minute bookings only to high-confidence destinations TFN. I expect many others to act in a similar fashion (or book nothing at all).
The priority for companies such as Jet2 has to be to conserve cash and wait this one out. Winter '20/'21 is effectively a write-off already.
CONSERVE CASH, CONSERVE CASH, CONSERVE CASH!