Originally Posted by
dr dre
Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/
France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.
The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/
Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/
Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.
The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.
Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.
Generally I agree, but for different reasons.
During the earlier peak, there was a bias towards only testing the sickest, due to test kit availability.
Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.
Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.
All down to test availability.
Respiratory viruses tend to follow cold weather patterns of circulation, putting Australia in a good position right now.
Northern hemisphere? Not so much.