Originally Posted by
escaped.atco
It seems a shame that these trainees couldn't have at least finished their course and been left with a student licence. At least they would have had something that might have helped.
Interesting prediction of traffic levels not recovering until 2024/25, that is a long time away. We can only assume that someone doing the figures has factored in natural wastage and worked out that these trainees will have no place for the foreseeable future. As airports approach NATS and other ANSPs with demands to reduce costs in order to ensure their own survival and competitiveness, it is difficult to know where this is all going. Ironically it may be more cost effective to get rid (early retirement, VR etc) of those older and more expensive ATCOs and replace them with trainees on a different contract. I would guess that if NATS had opened their recent VR program to ATCOs, there would have been a stampede for the door by a significant amount, that in turn would have left ample space for the newbies. My suspicion is that the current NATS model and generous T&Cs package is unsustainable, the problem as I have stated previously is that other ATCOs have always benchmarked against NATS. Once NATS decreases T&Cs then others will inevitably follow.
The only saving factor would be a dramatic and sustained aviation recovery, unfortunately this government doesn't seem to think aviation is worth saving at present.
I agree, it's horrible for those involved; unfortunately though, there'd be little benefit in completing the process to a student licence, as all those affected were on the area path. Their licence would have a limited value in isolation, they'd only get a credit for Basic, & the rating would only be of value to NATS, which is where we came in. The difficulty with opening the VR window to the operational world, is it puts the operation into immediate risk; those most likely to go, would be those needed either to train the new contingent, or relieve the OJTIs doing the training. It risks putting the company into uncomfortable & difficult terrain with its licence obligations, which no board could countenance. With nearly 300 still in the unit training system, the mitigation is there to make sure the operation can sustain for the time being, albeit it's still going to be very challenging.
I'm in two minds about the T&Cs: on the one hand, income is very much on a downward trend, & if it doesn't come in, it can't go out. On the other, we're again, like it or not, heading towards a situation of insufficient staff, what with natural wastage & the reduction in training capacity. When it does pick up, which it will, there'll be another shortage, which generally drives the price up. It's been the ATC cycle, since long before I joined.