So what exactly is the Victorian crisis.
105 hospital admissions? 3 wards. Across the whole state.
11 in ICU? Australia has 2000 ICU beds (public and private) and have surge capacity of another 2000. Of these 4000, figure 25% are in Victoria. So 11/1000 = 1% of resources.
Elderly deaths in residential aged care facilities? Yes that is sad.
About 200,000 Australians live in RACF. So maybe 50,000 in Victoria.
Another way to think of this number is 5-6% of Victorians older than 65.
Approx 20% of these people (so 10,000) die in a given year. That normally passes unnoticed. Infections, dementia, neglect, falls & trauma, cancer, suicide ... 10,000 per year.
Against that background, 500 RACF deaths is sad but perhaps not a crisis.
What about the other side of the ledger. What about the costs of lockdown
Increased mental health and self harm
Increased drug use.
Increased domestic violence
Increased child abuse
Kids disconnected from school
Economic costs
Businesses closed down
Families losing their homes
it’s not a simple exercise to balance these
But it is intellectually dishonest not to at least recognise the other side of the ledger.