Is the airline sector in denial about its imminent collapse?

[OldLurker]

I think the response to this depends somewhat on where you're coming from - metaphorically, and to some extent physically.

Those whose livelihoods or lifestyles depend on aviation - not only pilots who are here, but also people who run airports, people whose incomes depend on airports or tourism, and so on - may be inclined to hope that this crisis must surely be over before long so that our lives will go back to how they were before Covid. These people's response is likely to be more or less what you see in post #12.

Those who are not in the first category and are not keen on mass aviation for whatever reason - global warming, noise, and so on - may be inclined to hope that this is a "creative disruption", a sudden event which irreversibly changes the business environment to the detriment of established players who may have become complacent, and to the advantage of innovators. If that view is right, then the aviation sector and everything that surrounds and depends on aviation may indeed be about to collapse or at least to be reduced significantly. The oil industry may be facing a similar disruption, as Easyheat mentions.

Who is right? At the moment, we can't know. We can never know what the future holds but now, especially, forecasts are mostly snake oil. If we're lucky, a reliable vaccine for Covid-19 will emerge, the world will be vaccinated (don't underestimate that logistical challenge) and 'normality' will resume, maybe as early as the end of next year. Or maybe the pandemic will simply run its course and Covid-19 will become just another of the many seasonal diseases, like influenza, that kill a relatively small number of people every year.

I'd bet on mass aviation resuming somehow. It's too important for the first world, and for influential people in the second and third world, to be allowed to go under. But I agree with Asturias56 that there won't be a great rush back - it'll be tentative, slow and much reduced, at least at first.

By the way, business shouldn't expect 'certainty'. Certainty is impossible. As I said, we can never know what the future holds.