Originally Posted by
KRviator
So, I found a few figures and the number's are genuinely scary...As at yesterday, for COVID:
- The median age of all cases is 37 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
- The median age of deaths is 86 years (range: 30 to 106 years).
- Source
The ABS says in 2018 (Last year of avail data)
- Median age at death was 78.9 years for males and 84.8 years for females.
- Source
If you assume (I know, I know), the "average" age at death in Australia is (78.9+84.8)/2 = 81.85, then there is
zero value to be "saved" in the "statistical value of life" calculations,...............................
No, I think you're wrong and I also think it's a case of not understand stats etc, which should be left to those that do! I may even be reading this wrong.
The data I'm referring to is from the US Dept of Social Security Admin and is an actuarial table based on 2017 for the nominated age. The link will be at the end.
If you were 75 yrs old in 2017 (i.e. 78 yrs old today) you have on av another 11 yrs to live with only a 4% chance of dying in the next 12 mths. John Hopkins Uni data says if you're in the 70-80 age bracket and you get cv19 you have a 30% of kicking the bucket (no link, look at their website). If you were born in 2017 you'd have an Av life expectancy of 76! You see, we die off quite a bit more than you think at an earlier age than most of us think as we've been caught up in the Av age thingy (a DAME informed me of this a number of yrs ago). 40 to 50 sees a number go from cancer and heart disease, so if you see 50 your chances of reaching the Av life expectancy increase, when you hit 60 it's likely to exceed the av and once you're 70 you're past it. And so on till like the example above you do quite a bit better. This goes on till you you're in your 80s, 80 in 2017 will see you get to 88 with only a 6% chance of kicking it in the next 12mths, unless you get cv, then you're screwed!
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html