Australia is at least 6 months behind the rest of the world
Looking at the politics of COVID and how that relates to the state borders, I think Australia is about 6 months behind the rest of the world.
For example in France, their daily case numbers have spiked back above even the March and April peaks, yet the government has clearly stated they will not lockdown again.
Even the last few weeks has seen the political winds start to swing in Aus. Scomo and the Coalition are trying to get a consensus on hotspot definition etc that the states will follow. NSW has stated their displeasure with the requirements to reopen the QLD border. There’s been an increasing amount of noise from various business groups about the need for some future certainty for allowing them to reopen. All of these discussions and debates need to happen before anything changes.
I think we’ll see some actual movement by Christmas with some more reality checks to come next year as unemployment continues to rise.
Plus the QLD election will be another interesting thing to watch. Labor is trying to make it about COVID and I imagine they’ll win again. But once that’s over, maybe they’ll soften their stance on the border now the political threat has passed.
SA appears to be moving to try and allow movement between SA/NSW and I’d imagine as the Vic cases continue to drop they’ll open that border too.
How long will Tasmania hold out? Especially as the summer tourist season passes them by if the borders are still shut.
WA will continue on their own path.