Originally Posted by
wiggy
Agreed..
I think we (and especially the politicians) have backed themselves into a corner here..as testing is ramping up many countries are seeing an increased number of cases, and that seems to be the key metric for imposing quarantine and/or similar...not "symptomatic cases", not "cases in hospital", not "cases in ICU", simply "cases"..look at the MSM, every ***** evening, it's all about the daily number of "cases", "
UK testing has been fairly static for at least a month now, but positives are rising. Hospital admissions lag cases by at least 10 days or so, ICU by a bit more and deaths by 4-6 weeks (although you only get 4 weeks in the UK then you are considered "recovered" even if still in hospital). In Spain, hospital admissions have already followed cases upwards and deaths are now starting to rise too, France looks similar. Both
were arguably doing better than UK, what they did was go back (close) to "normal" pretty much all at once, while UK lifted restrictions more slowly. Cases are ticking up here now though and it is starting to look like hospital admissions might be too (too early to determine trend).
There isn't an easy answer, because by the time you actually see a clear rise in hospital admissions the time to act has passed, cases will have risen much further, and many more hospital admissions and deaths are already baked in.
In the UK and elsewhere schools have reopen and within days we are starting to hear of closures because somebody has tested positive. Closure,...schools shut, sent home, even though they and their cohort are rarely if ever seriously impacted by the virus.
The real worry about schools going back isn't the kids, it is the fact that kids pretty much always live with people older than them, they are more often asymptomatic and are less good a social distancing. The risk is not
to them, it is
from them infecting those that they live with. Well, at least that is my worry, I do have the perspective of being classified extremely clinically vulnerable and having two teenagers going back to school next week, they
need to go back, but I do NOT need covid. Too little data/knowledge to guess how bad it would be (doctors basically saying "we don't know, do NOT get it"), but hospital is apparently almost certain and generally it's russian roulette odds from there.
For the sakes of the general population we simply cannot go on like this...I'm of an age where I'm at elevated risk - I'm happy enough to reduce contact, continue with social distancing, etc, but my working age kids, and former colleagues, really need the economies of the world to get moving again...and that in part means air travel.
There are really three things we (talking about UK) can do:
1. Go back to "normal" and let it run. 6-7% or so infected so far according to antibody tests, 60-70% according to the same tests in worst affected areas of Italy, so we're 10% of the way through in terms of infections and deaths, and who knows what long term consequences. To get through it in any reasonable timescale to hit herd immunity before immunity runs out (and first reinfections are starting to be confirmed now) you are looking at health care completely overwhelmed (killign many more in collateral damage), possibly collapsing, and quite possibly taking the rest of the system down too. "Normal" would last a few months at most.
2. Go for a "zero covid" strategy (see e.g.
https://www.independentsage.org/a-be...zero-covid-uk/ ) - much more effort (apparently more than we can be bothered to do as a nation) and pain in the short term, but then allows a return to "Normal"
after elimination - but would require tight border control and quarantine on probably all international travel to keep it out, until the rest of the world catches up. This is NZ strategy. I'm fairly sure NZ tourism and travel industry is ****ed right now and for foreseeable future, I'm not sure that the population is screaming at the government for doing a bad job.
3. Try and find a "new normal" that will keep it suppressed at a level where we can cope with it, test, trace, play whack-a-mole with local outbreaks and quarantine zones, and hope people carry on complying with the restrictions until we can buy enough time to find a vaccine or treatment(*). This is the UK strategy, or directionless drift. Some sectors of the economy will come back, some won't. Some planes are flying, I don't have to go outside to hear them, but those I know who work in theatre have been told there is nothing until next April at earliest.
If you "can't go on like this" with the new normal option, I would suggest there are really no good choices at all for you. Move to NZ maybe, but I missed that boat long ago.
(*)No, "dex" is not a treatment, thousands of vets (older ones at least) collectively went "well Duh!" at the news that whacking in a load of dex as a last resort when things are dying tends to postpone death, sometimes, for a while. It doesn't treat anything or fix anything and you will be in a pretty bad way with plenty of long term or permanent damage by the time it is of any use, but remember you can't die of covid in the UK after 28 days, that's all they have to keep you alive for. Covid docs have it easy, cancer docs have to keep you alive for 5 years before you are a survivor, covid? - 4 weeks. If you though the govt. was devoid of strategy think again, it's right there in that 4 week cut off, we find a way to keep most patients alive for that long and suddenly almost nobody dies. Conveniently solves the re-infection problem as well, no one is
ever going to (officially) die of covid re-infection in the UK.