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Old 26th Aug 2020, 21:43
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Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Servo, you beat me to it. This behaviour is the source of my warning.

[So what does a failed US toy chain have in common with a collapsed Australian airline?

The Bain which took part in the private equity buyout of Toys R Us is the same Bain Capital that is about to take ownership of Virgin Australia.

So it is possible Toys R Us may give some clues as to what Virgin's future under Bain might look like.

Starting with Virgin's aeroplanes, of which it owns half.

Even the planes it does own have been fully borrowed against, but Eileen Appelbaum believes Bain will be looking for an opportunity to extract value from them as those loans are paid down.

"If things begin to recover, you can imagine that Bain would sell the aeroplanes to a leasing company and then Virgin Australia will have to rent the aeroplanes back and Bain will walk off with whatever they sold it for," Professor Appelbaum postulated.

Another common money-making strategy of private equity is what is known as the "Management Services Agreement", which Eileen Appelbaum said will be signed the day Bain takes control of Virgin.

She believes the airline will be paying hefty fees for advice and services it may, or may not, need.

"A lot depends on how the negotiation, or how that management services agreement is structured, whether Virgin Australia has a chance to come out of this in good shape," Professor Appelbaum argued.

Also affecting what shape Virgin will be in is how its takeover will be paid for.

[url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/bain-capital-offer-3.5-billion-virgin-australia-creditors-vote/12592742]It was revealed this week in the creditors' report Bain was offering $3.5 billion for the stricken airline.

Airlines are in deep trouble

Governments have pumped $130 billion into keeping airlines afloat, but many have already collapsed and more will follow with big consequences for the cheap overseas travel we've become used to.
Read moreIf, like Toys R Us, most of that gets loaded onto Virgin's balance sheet as debt, the interest payments will be a big drain on the airline's finances as it tries to reinvent itself to become viable.

According to Professor Appelbaum, regulators in the United States have concluded that if a company has debt of more than six times annual earnings, it is at high risk of going under.

That was exactly the situation Virgin Australia had got itself into before its collapse, with $7 billion of debt combined with heavy losses, which saw coronavirus send it spiralling into administration.

When asked by the ABC if Virgin would end up footing the bill for its own takeover, Bain Capital refused to comment, instead directing the ABC towards the creditors' report.

Look at who is running the show

Then there is current Virgin boss, Paul Scurrah.

Bain has publicly stated, and reaffirmed to the ABC, that Mr Scurrah will continue to run the airline under its ownership.
Bain Capital says current Virgin CEO Paul Scurrah, who enjoys widespread staff support, will remain in charge.(AAP: Joel Carrett)Although Bain Capital is currently backing Mr Scurrah, Eileen Appelbaum is not sure how long that will last.

She said the reason she fears Mr Scurrah will not last much longer in the job is because CEOs often feel loyalty to their staff and customers that can clash with private equity's common desire to make quick money before it sells.

"The first thing to look out for is, do they replace the CEO?" she cautioned.

"That would be a warning sign, and who do they replace the CEO with?

"Is it somebody who knows anything about running an airline? That would be very unusual."

Eileen Appelbaum points to Toys R Us, where the CEO installed by Bain and its partners had no experience of the toy industry, which made a bad situation worse.
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