PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - All borders to reopen.
View Single Post
Old 24th Aug 2020, 13:16
  #1025 (permalink)  
slats11
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Age: 60
Posts: 496
Likes: 0
Received 2 Likes on 2 Posts
From the outset, this has been one very strange virus. Most infectious diseases are most virulent where they originate, and become pprogressively less dangerous as they spread. The opposite is true for COVID with China (apparently) having very small numbers per capita relative to the rest of the world. Decidedly asymmetrical.

I wonder.

The median age of death (all causes) in Australia is about 81. The median age of death for Australians who died of COVID is 83. So COVID is more skewed towards the elderly than is all cause mortality.

Approx 5% of the Australian population is older than 80. That compares with about 1% older than 80 in China.

So just how noticeable would COVID be in a country with only 1% older than 80? Is China really free of COVID? Or does it simply fly under the radar with so few older than 80? Especially when the party line is that it is under control. Maybe some elderly Chinese are dying of "old age", while younger Chinese are simply getting a "cold." I am not sure how much testing they are doing for COVID in China. Maybe they have decided to "eradicate " it and get on with business.


On a related point, this article makes you wonder about the wisdom of wide societal lockdowns.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid...rtin-kulldorff
slats11 is offline