VR Thread

[Slasher1]

Originally Posted by Flex88

In all the above posts most every note and response is made or predicted entirely on the ebbing of this #ChinaVirus apocalypse and that, on its demise, spending, travel and populations thoughts processes will magically pop back to pre #WuhanVirus days.
CX sits bleeding cash micro managing these events, events that cannot be "managed' , hoping and betting (CX has a spectacular history in losing BILLIONS on bets) that when the virus is under control, "most' of pre virus business will return.
If this is the case, then why have many very large airlines already announced or affected massive layoffs? Has CX missed something or is the 9th floor Prince brigade stuck in a wishful thought vortex ?

One thing not mentioned is the global drop in GDP. The US for example will lose ~ 5% GDP in 2020 equating to 1.07 TRILLION dollars. This is money that will not be manufactured, sold, invested, earned as salary etc. it simply evaporates from the economy and its population.
The US accounts for ~ 15% of world GDP making the loss of world GDP at ~ 7.14 TRILLION dollars Mind numbing numbers to be sure however this estimate is on the absolute low side as many countries may be near a 20% drop (as is the UK).

What does this mean?

Many economists posit that these drops in GDP will take 4 > 10 years to recover to pre virus days due to the fundamental damage the virus is wreaking on global economies and it's not hard to extrapolate the above numbers over a longer term while of course (hopefully) decreasing over time.
Economists are also speculating that this virus driven armageddon may cause "permanent" changes to a populations spending habits.. ??

The UK's 20% 2nd quarter drop in GDP was, as quoted, a result of a 70% drop in "Private Consumption" e.g. travel and vacation i.e. DISCRETIONAL SPENDING

I am sure each and every one of you have already had thoughts or family talks on cutting Discretional Spending AS HAVE every other person and corporation in the world.. Consider how this will affect travel, both personal AND corporate, and vacation spending over the next 5 > 10 years and perhaps forever ?
Also consider how this virus has eviscerated personal and corporate savings/balance sheets worldwide and the cumulative effect this will have on all types of travel !!

Thoughts ?

The way the various governments have handled the WuFlu hasn't worked out so well (except perhaps Sweden and the like). But most governments are one-note Charlies when they get difficult situations over which they have limited control. Meaning that crossing any types of international borders is likely to remain cumbersome and difficult for quite some time into the foreseeable future.

If YOU had the possibility of being thrown into a gulag (excuse me, hospital) on the results of a test entering a nation (or even some cumbersome paperwork to fill out) would you be inclined to travel into that country if you didn't have to ? Or had to quarantine, etc ? So inclusive of all the propaganda and fear we have real difficulty simply getting into and out of countries in an airline in which EVERY trip is an international one. So this ain't going away anytime soon. And with the massive damage done to the working segments of economies (closing down restaurants, bars, gyms, cumbersome junk in manufacturing procedures, lines on floors and masks, etc) and inefficiencies interjected (as well as infusion money that doesn't really exist blown into it) this is a self-created armageddon. While capital markets might recover quickly (largely due to infusion money) there are huge segments being paid to idle from money that doesn't exist. How does that turn out ?

So, no, don't see many airline trips or cruise ship vacations anytime soon. People might stock up on 'stuff' or take trips in an RV (where they have control over their destiny) but I don't see alot of interest in discretionary income for vacations anytime soon. Or spending money for business travel and meetings when one can Zoom.