Some sensible discussion in between the conspiracy theories on this thread
The issue is we are using tests that have a significant false negative - up to 40% - and then extrapolating using different methods and assumptions. You cant compare apples with pears. In addition most young infected individuals are asymptomatic or parsi symptomatic and dont get tested. We can follow the same figure over time, but the politicians are changing the goal posts making even that difficult
The attack rate (number of people infected) is increasing in the UK and most of Europe and India. It is falling in the US. I am sceptical there is a second wave, a term coined in 1918 for a second year of infection when science couldnt identify the virus and government control was patchy. What we see is a balance between the degree of lockdown and attack rate. Reduce lockdown, get more cases, and vice versa.
The worry is we are seeing a repeat of the US when they stopped lockdown. The elderly and at risk populations stayed in isolation but the young went partying. The attack rate rose but hospitals remained empty for some weeks until the number of cases hit a level where the virus spilled into the older and more at risk populations. Result - a rapid increase in deaths and hospitalisations.
The obvious answer is to maintain restrictions on high risk activities such as pubs, restaurants and sporting events and concentrate grants, loans and furlough on these industries instead of waving money around at people who can safely work. Some people and businesses I regret have done well from the pandemic although we cant blame people for accepting taxpayers' money when they are offered it
As for aviation, it seems unlikely load factors can become profitable pre vaccine except for a minority of routes so money needs to be concentrated there as well.