Very interesting
"The call for evidence is accompanied by a four page document setting out both the context that the review is operating in, and also some of the questions that need to be addressed. It is a fascinating read as an insight into the decision making process, and the likely direction of travel that will result. For starters it is telling that the UK Government sees the future as being one of a global order where climate change, economic challenge and technological change drive much of the worlds problems. The document talks of the challenges around increased poverty, economic problems and how corporations will have GDP bigger than countries – making them highly credible actors.
At the same time it recognises that the world is getting more complex, that the risk of state on state conflict is growing and that there is a pivot towards Asia as a dominant economic centre of attention. It notes that within the next few years 80% of the worlds poorest population are likely to live in fragile states.
This headmark vision is compelling in that it tells us that the likely future laydown and structure of UK national security will be built around trying to tackle very complex problems that will require the whole of government to respond. In other words, while the armed forces will have a place in this response, so too will development, finance, economic trade and soft power and diplomacy – the future is not going to be one of the armed forces conducting national security in isolation. ....................... In identifying that the future global balance of power is likely to lie in Asia, the Review offers the UK an intriguing option. For the first time since WW2 the balance of power in the Euro-Atlantic is arguably of less significance than the balance of power in the Asia Pacific region – but for the UK, active participation in military issues moves from all but mandatory forced interest to a far more discretionary one. ....................... this could beg the question ‘what does the UK need globally deployable armed forces for’?
As a non-resident power, other than the Five Powers Defence Arrangement (FPDA) and the Brunei garrison there is no real military commitment to the region. This gives planners the luxury of time to decide if they want to commit militarily to the region, or if in future the UK sees its interests as being best served in a non military way out there.
The call for secure stable Euro-Atlantic neighbourhood would seem to emphasise the importance of NATO at the heart of UK defence, although no suggestions are made about what role the UK will play in NATO and what form it may take. The most telling line is that of ‘reformed and refocused approach to Defence’ – this single line is powerful. Reformed implies major change is coming, potentially to both structures and people, and also equipment. Refocused implies stepping away from some tasks to look at others instead.
It is likely then that whatever the final review settles on, the structure of the UK forces is likely to change significantly as a result of this review. The emphasis on the role of resilience, NATO security, science, climate change and so on does not instinctively suggest that we will see a military that looks like it does now................ This is not the time to play Fantasy Fleets, but it is a time to look more widely at the direction the Government wants to move in and realise that the Armed Forces are likely to face very substantial changes soon.