In all the above posts most every note and response is made or predicted entirely on the ebbing of this #ChinaVirus apocalypse and that, on its demise, spending, travel and populations thoughts processes will magically pop back to pre #WuhanVirus days.
CX sits bleeding cash micro managing these events, events that cannot be "managed' , hoping and betting (CX has a spectacular history in losing BILLIONS on bets) that when the virus is under control, "most' of pre virus business will return.
If this is the case, then why have many very large airlines already announced or affected massive layoffs? Has CX missed something or is the 9th floor Prince brigade stuck in a wishful thought vortex ?
One thing not mentioned is the global drop in GDP. The US for example will lose ~ 5% GDP in 2020 equating to 1.07 TRILLION dollars. This is money that will not be manufactured, sold, invested, earned as salary etc. it simply evaporates from the economy and its population.
The US accounts for ~ 15% of world GDP making the loss of world GDP at ~ 7.14 TRILLION dollars
Mind numbing numbers to be sure however this estimate is on the absolute low side as many countries may be near a 20% drop (as is the UK).
What does this mean?
Many economists posit that these drops in GDP will take 4 > 10 years to recover to pre virus days due to the fundamental damage the virus is wreaking on global economies and it's not hard to extrapolate the above numbers over a longer term while of course (hopefully) decreasing over time.
Economists are also speculating that this virus driven armageddon may cause "
permanent" changes to a populations spending habits.. ??
The UK's 20% 2nd quarter drop in GDP was, as quoted, a result of a 70% drop in "Private Consumption" e.g. travel and vacation i.e. DISCRETIONAL SPENDING
I am sure each and every one of you have already had thoughts or family talks on cutting Discretional Spending AS HAVE every other person and corporation in the world.. Consider how this will affect travel, both personal AND corporate, and vacation spending over the next 5 > 10 years and perhaps forever ?
Also consider how this virus has eviscerated personal and corporate savings/balance sheets worldwide and the cumulative effect this will have on all types of travel !!
Thoughts ?