Originally Posted by
missingblade
So what is Emirates thinking laying off ( not furlough- laid off permanently) about 1500 to 1800 of their 4500 pilots???
If the above applies to major airlines in general what are they thinking?
Good question - clearly they have a different viewpoint to me.
What I will say - they had over 10% attrition a couple of years ago. Plus they were growing. So I suspect their training 'machine' might be 15-20% not 13% like ours. And if they haven't been laying off trainers then that means they can train 450-900 pilots per year. So - will anyone be 'voluntarily' leaving an airline any time soon? No jobs to go to. So they can ramp up 900+ pilots per year (assuming their training was at max capacity when I last looked). Looks like they think they will be at say 80% by end of 2021 and maybe close to 100% end of 2022.
It all comes down to the assumptions. Which is why, IMHO, there is no plan for us at the moment. Who knows what will happen 6 months from now let alone 18 months from now. That lack of knowledge doesn't stop people making predictions (myself included)