You must be the life of a party.
Sorry - I didn’t want to post here, but now we know the numbers and the junior crew are mostly safe it’s time to put this to bed.
The only time to be worried is if QF announce fleet reductions. The VR&CR process will flow on from that.
Right now - it’s the right sized fleet for when it gets going again. The A380 is the only elephant in the room. But Qantas own them outright and can afford it keep them mothballed. It’s just the crew that’s the issue. Luckily it’s not hard to get them going on a 330 in the short term. Most would have flown it previously and are well and truly fluent in Airbus. As far as one can be.
My assessment is aviation will boom as soon there’s a vaccination. It won’t be far off. We are talking this year before we see it scaled up. Hopefully by Christmas (for vaccinations).
From there, consumer confidence will return and there will probably be a boom.
Originally Posted by
Telfer86
Safe from CR ?
My goodness what are you guys smoking ? You don't have an industry atm & you got an 8% take up
Did you ever believe that very strange & interesting number of a surplus of 190 , that was bandied about months ago , it was a ridiculous number
would love to see the reasoning & the calcs behind that one. Likely many of the applicants were just about to retire & looking for a payday - no guarantee their app will be accepted
The one factor they forgot to take into account it would seem is Covid 19 - who actually did this calc and what were the assumptions made in that calc
Because it's either someone being a bit tricky or someone who has zero concept - "global aviation has ceased so that means we now have a critical surplus of 10%"
You have approx 1500 LH pilots & you do not have a LH business , it has ceased completely & won't be back for years. How could you even begin to
measure the surplus there , but clearly it is at least 500 and the more hawkish managers would argue for a 50% cut
& you have approx 800 SH pilots & a skeleton service running at less than 5 % & it won't be back in any size for at least another year , so a couple of hundred there
also go
Standown's won't continue indefinitely that is why your managers have been pointing out to you that if you chose to take
lwop they will exercise their discretion & bypass you on CR. And why they have also cautioned you that if you are CR'd well
don't expect to stroll back on the premises like you own it , they may well require you to re-do selection
One guy said before if you take lwop the company washes their hands of you , not true you are still an employee. It is when you take VR or are CR'd
you are that occurs
Lots of stories here trying to promulgate the horrors of a return from lwop & all these horrible things that might occur to you. Very unlikely based on
how lwop (& there have been hundreds) have worked to date. I think the true nightmare would be waiting for re-employment as a CR , when QF opens to
externals again which you might be thinking is 2030
What is interesting is the looking down nose tone at people who are considering lwop , words used such as "jumping over" those more senior to you. That there
is something unethical or immoral about taking it. Do the joiners from early 2000s to GFC expect those who joined after 2016 to be the sacrificial lambs for them
- is that sort of the "honourable" thing to do ? Some kind of band of brothers , who are all noblemen
Stories abound about the four engine guys demanding to displace people on the other WB fleets - is that the act of a nobleman ?
CR is coming & the variable is the % , I think the % will be between 25 & 40% , primarily from the bottom of list , but with a
bit of fiddling around the edges , SH don't escape & some by base/fleet. Likely a more targeted VR will be offered again before end of year before CR
, smallish sweets added for targeted demographics
Anyone planning on banking two years of pay via CR , it aint gonna happen , they won't want to go much over 50 weeks pay , that keeps it to joiners this century
Out from me on this matter , both the naivety and hubris on display really quite incredible
& goodluck to all certainly a tough situation