Originally Posted by
Easy Street
Pilot error is already
the most common cause of air transport accidents and is trending upwards as mechanical reliability improves, technology mitigates ATC errors (TCAS/GPWS/GPS etc), and safety management systems bear down upon maintenance errors and organisational factors. And many posters on here routinely decry the standards of training, the experience, the pay and the working conditions of the younger and/or foreign members of the profession.
Far from being reticent over full automation, I’d be surprised if insurers aren’t looking forward to it, if not actively investing in research to help bring it about. The Miracle on the Hudson, the Gimli Glider, and no doubt a couple of other notable human ‘saves’ (*) make us feel good about what we can do that machines can’t, but ultimately they’re consolation scores in what’s going to become an increasingly one-sided contest as sensing and computing advance.
* Sioux City... but artificial intelligence nowadays can ‘do and learn‘ quickly enough that I suspect it could teach itself to fly on differential throttle just like Al Haynes did.
I agree with your statement that pilot error is now the leading cause of accidents in aviation, however what this statistic doesn’t account for is how many times pilots intervene in ‘minor’ incidents to stop the aircraft putting itself into a dangerous position.
Personally, I’ve seen an Airbus as it goes from ALT* to ALT take managed speed to MACH 0 and take all the thrust off, no explanation for it. I’ve had a DUAL ADR FAULT where the aircraft becomes fairly useless in terms of protecting itself. These are small examples and I’m sure there are many, many more. I also accept that in time these will be ironed out, but as long as Airbus are releasing OEBs and Boeing are installing faulty Alpha Protection systems, that pilots are needed as a backstop. We are faulty and full of latent errors, but at the moment everyday we make minor corrections to the automation that keep the aircraft safe.
Do I think aviation will be automated eventually? Yes. In the near future? No.