If this is the case, what effect will that have on potential CR’s? Would that surplus of more senior pilots push the bottom guys and girls into CR a couple of years from now? Hope it never happens for everyone’s sake.
A “couple of years from now” is unpredictable. Worldwide some airliners remained in storage for up to 9 years post GFC before being reactivated. It’s complex enough now to plan a RIN, but for the next 3 years when no one knows what will happen? Management have indicated that stand downs will continue whilst the fleet is stood down. As long as they are not retiring aircraft, like what was announced with the 747, then nothing changes from the forecast that has provided 190 pilots in surplus (that is the forecast til mid 2022).
Something that will have to be considered is the fact whilst pilots on long term stand down will probably return to flying, after having spent several years off coming back to flying won’t just be a matter of a few sims and off they go. The retraining will be extensive, and not just for individuals, we’re talking about entire fleets of pilots including instructors who haven’t been operational for a considerable length of time.