Bindair Dundat
Pax, sorrry your analysis is so overdone. The truth of what will occur lies somewhere in the middle. Your outlook ignores the fundamental of what being human is all about, at our core we are social animals.
I certainly agree about being social animals and I do
hope that the outlook is somewhere in the middle. I expect, and plan for, the worst. This can lead to a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately, in my life of watching international affairs and politics (I am not in the financial or poltical worlds and never have been) the number of pleasant surprises have been few.
Yes, humans WILL want to socialise and travel again - but if the money is not there? When people have lost their jobs, as many flight and cabin crew are, as many airline office employees are, then the money is not around.
Fashion will not revert online, business travel will be less for awhile and what makes sense.
Time will tell. Do not forget that the new generations are not frightened of being on line. Also, they have got used to ordering online and sending back what they don't want.
Costs play a huge part but once the fear subsides and treatment and/or vaccine happen people will do what people do, congregate, explore, travel. Once people can park zoom for awhile they absolutely will. Not one person I know is willing to assume this bizarre new normal.
I hope that those people you know do not get an unpleasant surprise. Over the millenia, human existance tends to change in 'landslides' and 'earthquakes' it is not that often, that change occurs slowly and gently. We have all got used to the easy progress since 1945. The airline world changed steadily and employment expanded beyond anyone's imagination. Steady expansion is not what history shows us.
As mentioned, the global economy was overheating before Covid19, there is a reason that gold has been increasing in value since long before the virus emerged.
As mentioned, with the airline world having to plan 5/10/15 years ahead - do not expect any fast changes.
As mentioned, the Max might get in the air in some parts of the world but it will never be the success that it was planned to be and this will limit jobs inside and outside of Boeing. Thus, costs may remain higher, unless a carrier can afford to buy/lease more efficient aircraft. So that is something of a Catch 22.
Your comments are indicative of someone who wished they were a pilot but didn’t do it or cut it.
No, you are wrong. I have never wanted to be a pilot and have never applied for any such job. I have been a happy pax since I was nine. Just because I am interested in the airline world - does not mean that I want to be part of it.