There are about 200 LH pilots over the age of 60.
The top 40 are over 63.5 and will get an ‘early retirement’ offer. It’s still likely to pay more than being ‘stood down’.
The next 40 are between 62.5 and 63.5. It’s a relative no brainer that they will be far better off financially taking the deal on offer. Even 61.5 (another 50) is probably better off to take it if they have more than a couple of months leave up their sleeve.
The remaining 70? Line ball call as to whether the flying picks up enough for them to make more than the VR offer on the table. Give the impact that a lump sum payment can have into your bank account I suspect the offer will be enough for at least half of them to take it. 165 in total. There may be some crew under the age of 60 who have a look at the deal too so perhaps another 5-10 there.
So I suspect Qantas will go pretty close to getting the 190-200 they’re after.
Unless they have a job contract to go to, any junior pilot should sit on their hands until the VR process plays out and avoid taking LWOP. Under CR Qantas pays a minimum of 6 months (this would apply to anyone hired since 2016) and you have a right of return as per the EA. Take LWOP and you get no accrued leave, no credited years towards LSL, a future CR won’t include any credit for time taken LWOP, etc. Until AIPA is able to have input into this LWOP and get a few quid pro quo’s for helping the company out you’d be nuts to just jump in the hope that it’d save your job.
Of course if you have a 2, 3, 5 year contract on the table and want some certainty for the next few years then go for it! Little to lose in that situation. Though if you really wanted to ‘play the system’ you could hold off applying for LWOP and continue to accrue leave and years of service and then take the LWOP a little further down the track. A strategy not without risk!